The sinking F1 Titanic
According to the BBC, Lola has decided they are no longer interested in joining F1.
They quoted one person from their comments section who interpreted this to mean that Lola was sure there would not be any open slots for them, after their initial entry was not one of the three accepted by the FIA. But I think that’s the wrong takeaway here.
More likely, they recognise that the only way that a slot would open up for them is if the eight teams which are members of FOTA do not enter F1 next year. There’s physically no more slots available for any new entries unless existing entries drop out, and those eight teams have been pretty united in laying down the conditions for their 2010 F1 entries.
That means that a field in 2010 which included Lola would not include the most iconic names in motor racing: Ferrari and McLaren, to name just two. And all the major car manufacturers currently in F1, such as Mercedes, Renault, and BMW.
Logistically and technically, that would cause difficulties for the remaining “F1″. One can assume that there will be no technical help for the new entrants from the existing, and now former, teams. That may not be such a big deal for Lola, who have a wealth of experience in motor racing and lots of technical know-how. But it could hamper the rest of the field of new comers. This could make the series not competitive, reducing its attraction to audiences, or even worse, turn it into a joke, with the field populated by teams who can barely get their cars off the starting line.
More seriously, the major motor manufacturers currently supply all the engines for existing F1 teams. Although at least Force India, and perhaps Williams too, have multi-year contracts for the supply of engines, if companies like Mercedes and Toyota leave F1, they are unlikely to do little more than perfunctory building and selling of engines until the contracts end. While one might argue they would still want their engined cars to win, they would most likely to be involved in a rival racing series which they would be more anxious to promote. If you were the car companies, which series would you direct more of the development funds toward?
Granted, Cosworth, a great name in automotive engineering and F1 racing, has been contracted to supply engines to the three new entrants, and could conceivably supply engines to other teams. But this is likely, over time, to result in a single-sourced engine series with Cosworth the sole engine supplier. Other companies could conceivably crop up, but there are no likely candidates which could compete with Cosworth.
There is also a real danger that the best drivers in F1 will have no interest in such a “Mickey Mouse” racing series. If the threat of a rival series, comprised of the eight teams in FOTA plus perhaps others, is realised, that is likely to be the series attracting the true talent, rather than second-rate “also-ran” or “has-been” drivers you can see in many other racing series already.
The only fly in the ointment for the FOTA members is the considerable difficulty in setting up a brand new racing series from scratch. To set up a rolling circus to rival the F1 spectacle in less than a year (at this point, not even 6 months) would be a Herculean task. While the companies may have the resources to pull it off, it’s not clear that they will have the talent or the organisational unity to. And the FIA and Bernie Ecclestone will undoubtedly do everything in their power to play spoiler.
No matter what happens on that front, however, the result is that any F1 to which Lola is granted entry is unlikely to be attractive. It’s just not going to be the pinnacle of motor racing that F1 currently is. And if you’re Lola, already involved in many other racing series, why bother?
Lola may, and probably have, already thought of this themselves. Which could mean that this is also a strategic move on their part. If FOTA leave F1 and start a new racing series, they are likely to want to attract new entrants themselves as well. And they would also want to institute some economising measures. This could mean that they would offer a package of regulations and technical aid which would allow a technically sophisticated and experienced operator like Lola to join such a series.
And as I’ve already noted, that may be the more attractive proposition.
